The worship of pseudoscience by the educated class in America is one of the big reasons we’ve lost all our rights under the guise of a cold virus that kills geriatric patients.
This is not science.
Politicians on either side of the aisle would have you believe that vote-by-mail could radically change election results. The science suggests otherwise.
The ongoing coronavirus crisis has brought a level of unpredictability to the coming presidential election that is perhaps unprecedented in American history.
Could voting-by-mail change voting patterns and reveal a radically different electorate? A new study into historical voting patterns suggests that the answer is no. If anything, vote-by-mail could actually boost turnout, according to the results.
This story is brought to you by SCIENCE.
Also, by DAVID GROSSMAN.
Published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, the study pairs county-level data from 1992 through 2018 recorded across the US with over 40 million voting records in Utah and Washington state. The team wanted to examine if partisan voting patterns would change at all if voting switched to mandatory voting-by-mail.
The study claims they used nationwide voting data from the last 26 years and paired it with states that have rolled out some kind of vote-by-mail system, Utah and Washington. The study says they used “various methods for causal inference” to reach their conclusion. This is not science.
Neither Utah or Washington have been competitive in their elections in the last 26 years. I don’t have to explain how Utah is different than Florida is different than Wisconsin is different than Mexico in terms of voters. Further, perhaps the authors of the study are unaware, many states in America are not like Utah. In fact, there is no state like Utah. So these are inferences in this “study” based on Utah Latter-day Saint behaviors and applying them to the Mexicans in Texas? This is not science.
But what did their pseudoscience find?
According to study authors Michael Barberand John B. Holbein, voting patterns show a slight Democratic bias. “Our most precise estimates suggest that [voting-by-mail] increases Democratic vote shares by 0.7 percentage,” the authors write. “These effects are not close to statistically significant and are substantively small,” they added.
0.7% you say?
Won’t radically change election results you say?
The reader is no doubt aware that increasing Democratic vote shares by 0.7% doesn’t mean the total in the election is then 100.7%. The 0.7% increase for the Democrats means a 0.7% decrease for Republicans in terms of “vote share.” So this would mean a potential swing of 1.4% in this election based on inference models from non-competitive states where there is little incentive to cheat because the margins are just too large.
Further, the study admits their 95% confidence models say it could be as high as +4% for the Democrats.
I went ahead and applied this 1.4% change to favor Democrats to the 2016 election results to give the reader an idea of what vote-by-mail will mean.
Vote-by-mail nationwide will mean and absolute slaughter of the Republicans, much worse than this map can explain. They will lose the Senate. Dems will gain super majorities in Congress and many state legislatures. This is based on a model that probably includes very little cheating, again due to the non competitive nature of those states. Reality will be much worse.
Republicans have already announced they’ve caved on the mask issue and they will submit to masks for as long as the media says we have to. Do you trust them to stop vote-by-mail scheme based on the same Virus hysteria?