Shocking Poll Shows Ken Paxton Beating John Cornyn

And a word on the art of polling

A CWS Poll just came out about the Ken Paxton impeachment. It was commissioned by Defend Texas Liberty PAC. We at Current Revolt had a look at the poll, and it appears to indicate support for Ken Paxton. According to the results, 52% agree the Texas Senate should dismiss the charges.

Per CWS

And 56% would be more likely to support their State Senator if they voted to acquit and restore Ken Paxton to office:

So far, it looks promising for Ken Paxton. However, there are several reasons to be cautious when interpreting this poll. To start with, the poll was limited to Texas State Senate District 30; merely one of thirty-one Texan Senate districts:

This is a heavily Republican district that voted 74% Republican in 2018, and presently shows no signs of flipping blue.

Wikipedia

Just by looking at the map, we can see why this would be a heavily Republican district.

One wonders why the poll was limited to such a heavily Republican district. The poll probably does not represent well the views of more moderate Republican voters, concentrated around metropolitan areas of Texas. Furthermore, some of the questions seem designed to prime respondents to respond a certain way. For instance, the second impeachment question reads:

Ken Paxton has sued to fight for fair and transparent elections in 2020 and has aggressively prosecuted voter fraud in Texas. Does this make you more likely, or less likely, to support Ken Paxton?

Of course, any real Republican would be more likely to support him based on Paxton’s actions to prosecute voter fraud. But the poll does not seem to ask comparable questions that would portray Paxton less favorably. Such a question could have listed the accusations against Paxton and then asked if these accusations make the respondent less likely to support him. But we do not see such questions, which suggests some bias by the pollsters.

Again, the poll was conducted for Defend Texas Liberty PAC. We should keep in mind that pollsters work for those commissioning the poll, so the above limitations should not be too surprising.

It’s actually a smart way to defend Ken Paxton. I would imagine that Defend Texas Liberty PAC will take this to or Legislature (#TXLege) to make the case they should acquit Paxton.