The State of the Senate Race

Polls and scandals.

The Texas Senate race continues to be a massive point of pressure for Republicans who hoped for an easy win. Polls come out daily showing James Talarico beating Ken Paxton. Polls have even begun to show Gina Hinojosa leading over Texas Governor Greg Abbott.

If you’ve been involved in Texas politics long enough, you know this is the general stance to take on these polls:

Adam Loewy@LoewyLawFirm

Polls are truly Fake News. Absolutely insane how the media eats em up.

Adam Schwager @schwagerTV

Here's the main difference between Hinojosa +4 or Abbott +3: Siena's Hinojosa-favored poll has her winning voters aged 50-64 by 13 points Emerson's Abbott-favored poll has him winning people in their 50s by 18 points, and people in their 60s by 17 points

9:05 PM · Sep 17, 2026 · 7.26K Views

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12 Replies · 1 Repost · 48 Likes

The media does eat up these polls because they provide easy content and easy voter motivation for Democrats, which leads to more donations.

Recent Texas Senate polls show the following:

So what does this mean? Who cares. You can make a poll to show whatever you want nowadays. Like this one:

Recent Scandals

Both Paxton and Talarico have had scandals hit recently, that don’t seem to be moving the needle but are entertaining nonetheless.

Paxton:

According to recent reporting by MaryAnn Martinez, Ken Paxton was reported to London Police after being caught on camera running around with his new girlfriend.

Daily Mail:

An American tourist has accused US Senate candidate Ken Paxton of lunging at him and trying to snatch his phone after he filmed the Texas Attorney General walking with his lover in London.

The man, who exclusively spoke to Daily Mail so long as we not name him or his wife, said he reported the alleged confrontation to London’s Metropolitan Police after it unfolded on Westminster Bridge, close to the London Eye, on July 1.

Paxton being caught gallivanting around London with his new girlfriend hardly surprises anyone, although it’s funny that he tried to stop the tourist by grabbing for his phone.

The Daily Mail has no updates on whether charges will be filed or if the London Police will take any action.

‘Were you filming me back there?’ Paxton allegedly demanded.

‘And I said, “Yes, I was.” And he said, “You can’t do that,”’ the tourist told the Daily Mail.

‘I stopped because I was just hot, and I said, “I can absolutely film you. You’re a public figure in a public place, and I can film you all I want.”

‘Now we’re facing each other and he’s mad, and he says, “Let me see what you filmed,” and he lunged for my phone,’ according to the tourist.

He claims the encounter then descended into a heated public confrontation, with Paxton repeatedly demanding his phone as he tried to move away.

‘He says, “You can’t do that. Let me have your phone. I want your phone,” and then at this point it’s a confrontation,’ he added.

‘He’s yelling at me, and I’m telling him to back off. He lunged at the phone a second time and tried to force it from me.’

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Talarico:

A PAC supporting James Talarico was caught on video admitting to paying voters $25 to vote for Talarico. You can read that story here:

Soros-Funded PAC Caught Paying Texans $25 to Vote

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Do either of these scandals move the needle for voters? Unlikely.

I believe most voters have already decided who they’re voting for, or not voting for, at this point. GOTV seems like the most important thing campaigns are concerned about.

The prediction market Kalshi does seem to reflect the recent polls showing Talarico up.

Kalshi is a sponsor of Current Revolt. You can sign up with an account on Kalshi to give your own prediction here.

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